Highest temperature in Seoul on May 30?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 30 May 2026 will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station throughout that calendar day. Late May in the Seoul metropolitan area typically sits in the warm-to-hot range as the region transitions into early summer, with historical highs around 28–32°C common for this period.

Incheon's May climate data shows considerable year-to-year variation. The airport station has recorded May highs ranging from the low 20s during cooler springs to the mid-30s during warmer years, depending on whether subtropical air masses push north from the Pacific or cooler continental patterns persist. A 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the market's temperature brackets to exclude extremely low outcomes, though without visibility on the specific ranges offered, the consensus may reflect confidence in typical late-May warmth rather than exceptional heat.

The resolution depends entirely on Wunderground's historical weather archive for Incheon (RKSI), which updates daily and provides granular hourly data. Traders should monitor seasonal weather forecasts from late May 2026 onwards, particularly any signals about early heat waves or delayed spring conditions affecting East Asia. The Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal outlooks, typically released months in advance, will offer initial guidance on whether May 2026 tracks toward above-normal or below-normal temperatures for the region.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on May 30? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.