Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s afternoon heat is still the key variable here: August in Shanghai is typically the city’s hottest month, with average highs around 32°C to 35°C and published daily highs that can still approach the mid- to upper-30s Celsius.[1][3][4][6] The market resolves on the peak reading at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, so a brief surge in sun and humidity matters more than the daily average. On that basis, a **0% yes** price implies the crowd sees an outcome outside the relevant temperature band as virtually impossible, but historical August data show Shanghai can still produce extreme heat spikes well above seasonal norms.[2][6][15]

Comparable cases matter because Shanghai’s August profile is volatile: the city recorded an all-time August record of 40.0°C in historical summaries, and official reporting noted a run of 26 consecutive days above 35°C in August 2025, alongside a monthly total of 27 high-temperature days.[2][4][6] Forecast-style averages for early August 2026 sit near 31°C to 32°C, with some sources showing highs in the low 30s and others allowing for mid-30s peaks, which supports reading this as a live-weather, not a purely seasonal, market.[8][12][14]

Traders should watch for typhoon-track changes, cloud cover, and any shift in local wind or rain patterns, because Shanghai’s August climate combines heat with frequent rainfall and storm risk.[4][8][9] The most relevant trigger is the day’s actual airport observation from Wunderground, so any late-afternoon heating, sea-breeze suppression, or storm outflow could change the settlement outcome even if the morning looks benign.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.