Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s highest temperature on 10 August will hinge on the actual hourly readings at Pudong rather than a headline forecast number. The market is pricing a very specific outcome, but Shanghai’s August climate gives little support to the current 0% YES: long-run averages sit around 32°C/26°C, while historical August records in the city have reached the mid-30s Celsius and, in some datasets, higher still.[4][15][12]

Comparable August 10 cases point to a warm baseline with plenty of upside on hotter years. One August 10 reference shows a forecast/expected high of about 35.5°C, and another historical series has listed August highs in the low-to-mid 30s °C, with some years reaching 38°C or even 41°C depending on the source and station coverage.[5][6][12] That spread matters for resolution because the market settles on the highest temperature logged in the Daily Observations table, so a brief late-morning or mid-afternoon spike above the summary high is enough to move the outcome.[7]

For traders, the key catalyst is whether Shanghai Pudong gets a sustained hot, humid window before rain bands or cloud cover suppress the peak. Current history pages show elevated overnight temperatures, high humidity, and unsettled conditions around 10 August, which can either cap the daytime high or, if sunshine breaks through, allow a sharper climb later in the day.[1][14] Weather Underground’s daily and weekly history pages are the relevant resolution sources here, so any discrepancy between the Day High & Low summary and the table should be read in favour of the table reading.[7][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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