Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's maximum temperature on 11 August 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground, with settlement occurring at midday UTC on that date. The market currently reflects zero probability of any outcome occurring, suggesting either incomplete pricing or early-stage liquidity.

August represents Shanghai's peak summer season, with historical daily highs typically ranging between 32–35°C, though extreme heat events have pushed readings above 37°C in recent years. The city's subtropical monsoon climate creates relatively consistent patterns during this period, with afternoon thunderstorms occasionally moderating temperatures. Comparable August days from 2023 and 2024 recorded highs of 34–36°C at the airport station, providing a baseline for assessing likely ranges. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders may be awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or waiting for more granular temperature bands to be offered.

Key variables include the timing and intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon system, which influences cloud cover and precipitation patterns across the Yangtze River Delta region. Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—the specified resolution source—occasionally differs from summary high-low figures due to measurement timing and methodology, making source verification critical. Traders should monitor extended-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and track any anomalous pressure systems developing across the Western Pacific in late July, as these can drive unseasonable heat or cooling into early August.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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