Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s late-summer heat normally keeps the daily peak well into the 30s Celsius, and the current forecast points to another hot day rather than a cool outlier. AccuWeather’s August outlook for Shanghai shows daily highs in a broad 82–92°F range, while day-specific forecasts for 4 August cluster around the mid-30s Celsius, with some services printing 33–34°C and others allowing for a brief push higher if sunshine dominates[1][2][3][16].

That backdrop matters because the market resolves to the *single highest reading* at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, not the citywide average, so small location-specific differences can decide the band. In comparable Shanghai August patterns, daytime highs commonly sit around 31–35°C, with occasional spikes towards 38–40°C in the hottest stretches, so a 0% yes price looks detached from the normal distribution unless cloud, rain, or an unexpected marine influence holds the airport below the mid-30s[7][13][17].

For traders, the key catalysts are the evolving airport forecast, any shift in cloud cover or afternoon convection, and whether sea-breeze effects or showers cap the maximum before the settlement window closes. The available day forecasts already diverge on rainfall and peak heat, ranging from “patchy rain possible” to dry, sunnier readings, so intraday updates matter more than the early-morning view; Wunderground’s station history will ultimately settle the result, so later observations at Pudong are the main dependency[2][3][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.