Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s highest temperature on 11 July 2026 will be recorded at the Pudong International Airport station, with settlement based on Wunderground’s daily maximum in degrees Celsius. Historical data shows July highs at this site typically range from 30°C to 35°C, often peaking near 38°C in recent years, while rarely falling below 28°C [3][6]. The current 0% YES probability implies the market expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range, yet comparable cases from July 2025 (38°C) and average highs of 30.7–32°C between 11–20 July suggest a high likelihood of temperatures within standard summer bands [6][9].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground and hourly forecasts from Yr or AccuWeather, as sudden thunderstorms or cloud cover could suppress peak temperatures [4][10]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 11 July, meaning any temperature recorded before that time at ZSPD will determine resolution. Key dependencies include the timing of the daily heat peak—typically around 3 PM local time—and whether heavy precipitation, forecast for Thursday, persists into Saturday [4]. A beat-reporter-style watch on local meteorological bulletins from China’s National Meteorological Centre would provide the most timely confirmation of deviations from the 30–35°C norm.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.