Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s mid-July climate routinely pushes daytime highs above 30°C, with the Pudong International Airport station frequently recording temperatures exceeding 35°C during heatwaves. Historical July averages for the airport sit near 32.1°C, while forecast models for July 2026 indicate daily highs between 30°C and 37°C, making any outcome below 24°C virtually impossible under normal atmospheric conditions [1][4]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome (presumably a specific low threshold not met) aligns with this thermal baseline, as even conservative forecasts rule out sub-25°C peaks in this period.

Comparable cases from recent years show Shanghai’s July highs clustering between 32°C and 37°C, with extreme heat events occasionally breaching 38°C. A Polymarket on Shanghai’s July 3, 2026 temperature resolved with the highest reading at 27°C, suggesting that while variability exists, the city rarely dips below 25°C in mid-summer [3]. Traders should monitor the Wunderground daily history for ZSPD as the settlement source, watching for real-time updates on 13 July and any sudden shifts in cloud cover or rainfall that could suppress temperatures [3]. No major weather announcements are expected before settlement, but hourly forecasts from Yr and AccuWeather indicate fair conditions with a maximum of 31°C for the day, reinforcing the improbability of anomalously low readings [1][10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.