Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s airport temperature on 23 July will be decided by the day’s maximum reading at Pudong, so the market is really about whether the city gets a typical midsummer warm-up or a more extreme heat spike. July in Shanghai normally averages about 31°C for the high, with humid conditions and frequent rain, which means the daily peak often depends as much on cloud cover and showers as on the underlying airmass.[1][3]

The current 0% YES price looks detached from the climatology rather than a firm signal about the day itself. Recent market pricing on the same event has centred on the mid-30s Celsius, with 36°C listed as the front-runner and 35°C close behind, which is consistent with Shanghai’s hot July profile and suggests traders were not treating sub-30s outcomes as realistic.[2] For comparison, a 31°C average July high leaves plenty of room for a hotter-than-normal reading if sunshine breaks through early enough.[1][3]

What matters now is the local forecast evolution around Pudong: whether a subtropical ridge holds, whether cloud and rain bands move through before the afternoon peak, and whether airport observations show a sharp early climb or an afternoon cap. The settlement source is Wunderground’s Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station history page, so the key dependency is the station’s reported maximum for the full day rather than any citywide forecast estimate.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 23?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.