Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s July heat makes a high temperature outcome far more plausible than a cool one, but the market resolves on the *highest* reading at Pudong Airport, not the citywide average. Shanghai’s July climatology is hot and humid, with typical highs around 31–32°C and late-July averages clustering near the low 30s, while official city records show repeated bursts well above 35°C in recent summers.[3][4][17]

That is why a 0% implied chance on the lowest ranges should be read cautiously: historical Shanghai summers frequently produce at least one spike into the mid-30s, and recent heatwaves have been extreme enough to set station records and long runs above 37°C. Shanghai authorities said the city endured a 12-day heatwave in 2024, with temperatures hitting or exceeding 37°C from 31 July to 11 August, which shows how quickly late-July conditions can escalate under a strong subtropical high-pressure system.[2][12][14]

The main catalysts are the day’s synoptic pattern and any short-term rain or cloud cover near Pudong Airport, because these can suppress the afternoon maximum even when the broader city is hot. Traders should watch local forecasts and any late updates on thunderstorm risk, sea-breeze effects, or persistent cloud bands over eastern Shanghai; airport observations matter most for the settlement source, so a few degrees of difference between the city core and the airport can decide the bucket. Historic July data also suggest that 31 July sits near the seasonal high point, with typical highs around 32°C and occasional extremes near 39°C in Shanghai climate tables.[9][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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