Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 4?

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Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 4 June 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. Early June sits within Shanghai's late spring period, typically characterised by warming trends ahead of the summer monsoon season. The city's average daily high in early June ranges between 28–30°C, though extremes have occasionally pushed toward 35°C during anomalous heat events.

Historical precedent suggests the 0% crowd probability reflects uncertainty rather than impossibility. Shanghai recorded a high of 34.1°C on 4 June 2015 and 32.8°C on 4 June 2019, indicating that temperatures in the upper 30s Celsius remain plausible for this date. The settlement window closes at midday UTC (20:00 Shanghai time), capturing most of the day's temperature range. Traders should note that Wunderground's historical records occasionally show discrepancies with official China Meteorological Administration data, though the platform remains the specified resolution source.

Atmospheric patterns entering June 2026 will determine outcomes. The East Asian summer monsoon's onset timing—typically occurring between late May and mid-June—acts as the primary catalyst. Early monsoon arrival typically brings cloud cover and precipitation that suppress peak temperatures, whilst delayed onset allows sustained high-pressure systems to drive heat accumulation. Current seasonal forecasts from meteorological services should be monitored through May 2026, as they provide the most reliable guidance on whether conditions favour temperatures exceeding historical norms for this specific date.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 4? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.