Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 23?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's maximum temperature on 23 May 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. Late May sits within Shanghai's late spring period, typically characterised by warming trends ahead of the summer monsoon season. The city's May temperatures have historically ranged between 25°C and 32°C, though extremes occasionally push beyond these bounds depending on synoptic patterns and moisture availability from the East China Sea.

Comparable May datasets from Shanghai's meteorological records show considerable year-to-year variability. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cold outcome or uncertainty about which temperature band will ultimately contain the daily maximum. Historical May 23rd observations at this station provide the most direct precedent; reviewing Wunderground's archive reveals typical highs cluster in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius range, with occasional readings into the mid-30s during particularly warm years influenced by subtropical high-pressure systems.

Key variables affecting the outcome include the position and strength of the Pacific subtropical high-pressure system in late May 2026, which drives warm air northward into eastern China, and the timing of any pre-monsoon moisture surges from the south. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from China's Meteorological Administration and broader climate indices—the East Asian summer monsoon onset timing particularly influences late May weather patterns across the Yangtze River Delta region. Real-time forecasts become actionable only in the final week before settlement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.