Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 25 May 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather records from Wunderground. Late May in Shanghai typically falls within the pre-monsoon transition period, with daytime highs ranging between 28–32°C depending on atmospheric conditions and cloud cover. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning only temperatures recorded up to that point will count toward resolution.

Historical data from Shanghai's May weather patterns shows considerable year-to-year variation. Over the past two decades, 25 May highs have ranged from 23°C in cooler years to 34°C during warmer spells, with an approximate median around 29–30°C. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned suggests traders may be anchoring to either an unusually low or high threshold within the available temperature bands, or uncertainty about which specific range the market offers as settlement options.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather forecasts released in early May 2026, particularly any signals of early heat waves or cooler maritime influences from the East China Sea. Atmospheric pressure systems and tropical moisture patterns in late April will be key indicators of whether 25 May experiences above or below-median temperatures. Real-time forecast updates from meteorological services become more reliable within two weeks of the date, allowing traders to reassess positioning as the settlement window approaches.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.