Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 26?

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Market context

Shanghai's maximum temperature on 26 May 2026 will be measured at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. Late May sits within Shanghai's late spring period, transitioning toward the onset of the East Asian summer monsoon system that typically strengthens through June.

Historical May temperatures at Shanghai Pudong show a median daily maximum around 28–30°C, with extremes reaching into the mid-30s during warm years. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific narrow range or uncertainty about which temperature bracket will resolve. Comparable late-May conditions from recent years—including 2023 when Shanghai recorded 31.2°C on 26 May and 2022 when the date saw 27.8°C—demonstrate the variability within this window. Atmospheric patterns in late May depend heavily on whether subtropical high-pressure systems dominate or whether pre-monsoon troughs bring cooler, wetter conditions.

Key variables affecting the outcome include the position of the Western Pacific subtropical high-pressure system and any tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during the preceding week. China Meteorological Administration forecasts, typically issued 10 days ahead, will provide initial guidance; traders should monitor these releases for any signals of anomalous warmth or cooler-than-normal patterns. The specific resolution date falls mid-week, avoiding weekend forecast uncertainty, though spring weather systems can shift rapidly across the Yangtze River Delta region.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.