Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 28?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's weather in late May sits at the threshold between spring and early summer, with the city transitioning into its pre-monsoon season. Historical data from Shanghai Pudong International Airport shows that 28 May typically records daily highs between 28–32°C, though extremes have occasionally pushed toward 34–35°C during particularly warm years. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical weather database, which captures the single highest temperature reading across all hours on that date at the airport station.

Comparable May dates from recent years provide calibration points for assessing temperature ranges. In 2023, Shanghai recorded a high of 31°C on 28 May; in 2022, the figure was 29°C. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned suggests traders are either avoiding the market entirely or treating all temperature brackets as equally unlikely—a common pattern in weather markets with limited participation. The absence of trading activity does not reflect meteorological implausibility; rather, it reflects typical low liquidity in niche weather prediction markets.

The key variable affecting resolution is the specific weather pattern dominating eastern China in the days preceding 28 May 2026. Subtropical high-pressure systems and moisture-laden air masses from the Pacific will determine whether temperatures cluster toward seasonal norms or spike into the upper 30s. Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week before settlement, as these provide the most granular regional guidance available. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 28 May, allowing only morning readings to count toward final resolution.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.