Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen's peak temperature on 17 August 2026 will be measured at Bao'an International Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently reflects zero probability of any outcome occurring, suggesting either incomplete pricing or a technical issue requiring clarification before trading positions are established.

August represents the height of Shenzhen's summer monsoon season, when daily highs consistently exceed 32°C. Historical data from the airport station shows that mid-August temperatures typically range between 32–35°C, with occasional peaks reaching 36°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 2023 summer saw multiple days above 35°C in August, whilst 2022 recorded a 37°C maximum on 16 August at the same station. These precedents establish the likely temperature bands for resolution purposes.

Traders should monitor meteorological forecasts released in the days preceding 17 August 2026, particularly any typhoon activity or upper-atmosphere pressure systems that could suppress or elevate temperatures. The South China Sea's seasonal patterns significantly influence Shenzhen's weather; tropical cyclone activity during August can either bring cooling rainfall or intensify heat through atmospheric compression. Weather Underground's historical data feed should be verified for any station maintenance or sensor recalibration that might affect recorded readings. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on the resolution date, allowing only morning observations to count towards the final measurement.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

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