Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen is in the middle of its hottest, most humid stretch in August, so the market is really about whether the airport station posts a routine late-summer peak or something closer to the upper end of the local range. Long-run August averages cluster around 32°C/90°F for highs, with daily highs typically near 89–90°F and lows around 79–81°F, which makes sub-30°C outcomes unusual for the month rather than the norm.[2][6][10]

That framing helps explain why a 0% crowd-implied chance looks more like an overstatement of caution than a view that extreme heat is impossible. Historical comparables show Shenzhen can exceed its seasonal average by a wide margin: one compiled August guide cites a record high of 103°F in 2017, while the same source says August highs commonly reach the low 90s°F.[8] Another historical set for the airport station showed an 84°F reading in early August 2025, underlining that actual outcomes can sit well below the climatological average when cloud, rain and onshore flow take hold.[11]

For traders, the main catalysts are the local weather pattern, not a scheduled announcement. In early August Shenzhen is also in the part of the year when rainfall and tropical disturbances can sharply suppress daytime maxima, and historical August rainfall totals are high enough to make wet, cloudy days a meaningful downside risk to the highest temperature.[2][10] The key dependency is whether the Bao'an airport site spends the day under sunbreaks, convection or rain bands; those can move the settled value by several degrees even when the broader month looks hot.[18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 2?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.