Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s peak temperature for 3 August will be set by the reading at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport Station, not by the citywide average, so the market is really about the day’s highest airport observation rather than the general feel across the metro area. Seasonal guides put Shenzhen in a hot, humid late-summer pattern, with typical August highs around 31–32°C and frequent rain, which is consistent with a distribution centred in the high 20s to low 30s rather than anything extreme.[2][4][9][17]

That makes the current 0% YES price on the wrong outcome an aggressive position only if the airport observation lands outside the listed band; in comparable Shenzhen August weather, the more common risk is a cap on the high from cloud, showers and maritime humidity rather than a clean run to a very hot maximum.[2][4][11][17][19] Forecast pages for early August also point to patchy rain and highs around 31–33°C, which supports why traders often anchor near 29–31°C unless the local forecast turns drier.[1][2][6]

The key catalysts are the short-range forecast updates and any change in rainfall timing, cloud cover or typhoon-related moisture over the South China Sea, because those factors can shave a couple of degrees off the daytime high or allow a brief spike if sunshine breaks through.[2][6][17] For a market that settles on the airport station’s highest recorded temperature by the end of the daytime window, the most relevant watchpoints are the morning forecast revisions, any official weather warnings, and the first published airport observations after the peak heating period.[6][10][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.