Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s reading is set by the hottest value logged at Bao’an airport on 4 August, so the market hinges on a single-day maximum rather than the broader city forecast. With the crowd pricing **0% YES**, traders are effectively saying the settlement outcome is viewed as either not yet covered by the market or highly unlikely relative to the listed range.

August in Shenzhen is typically **hot, humid and wet**, with average highs around **32°C** and frequent rain, but that does not guarantee an extreme peak on any one day. Recent forecasts for early August point to temperatures around **31–33°C** with showers and cloud cover, which can cap daytime heating even when the monthly norm is high[2][9][16][18]. Comparable August guidance also shows a narrow cluster near **31°C to 32°C** for 4 August, reinforcing that the main question is whether breaks in cloud allow a brief spike above the usual band[2][10].

For traders, the key catalysts are the **intraday forecast updates**, any shift in **rain timing or cloud cover**, and whether a **typhoon-related system** changes humidity, wind and storm coverage in the region. Shenzhen’s August climate is already rain-prone, with sources describing more than 20 rainy days and over 300 mm of monthly precipitation, so the exact placement of showers on the day matters more than the monthly average[2][18][20]. Because the market resolves off the airport station’s highest recorded temperature, late-day clearing or a suppressed afternoon under persistent rain are the main dependencies to watch[7][12].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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