Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 7?

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Market context

Shenzhen is under a hot-weather warning, with the local meteorological office saying the city could reach **36C or above** over 6–10 August as it sits beneath subsiding air around Typhoon White Dolphin, while short, localised thunderstorms remain possible. That puts the day’s peak firmly in the range where the market can still settle higher than the broad forecast implies, especially if sunshine dominates before any rain arrives.[13][7]

The current **0% YES** price looks cautious against the published August climatology and the latest day-ahead guidance. Shenzhen’s August averages are around **32C** with highs commonly near **32–35C**, and several forecast services show 7 August itself around **32–34C** rather than an extreme outlier.[3][5][6][17] Comparable hot-season setups in the Pearl River Delta often produce a high daytime cap rather than a full afternoon surge, but official warnings show the upside tail is live when subsidence and clear spells persist.[13][7]

For traders, the key catalysts are the evolution of the **high-temperature warning**, any escalation to a stronger alert, and the timing of cloud cover or showers that could truncate the afternoon maximum.[13] The market resolves from the **Weather Underground Daily Observations** table at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport, so late updates there matter more than summary high/low displays if the two diverge; that makes the exact observation time of the peak temperature the main dependency, not the full-day forecast headline.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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