Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen is experiencing overcast conditions with 83% humidity and a RealFeel temperature of 95°F (35°C) as the day progresses, yet the market assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting a potential mispricing or a specific resolution threshold not yet met by current observations. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, leaving only two hours for the temperature to spike significantly above the current 29°C reading at Bao'an International Airport, which remains the definitive resolution source via Wunderground history.

Historical data for mid-July in Shenzhen typically sees peak temperatures between 33°C and 36°C, with Bao'an Airport frequently recording highs that exceed 34°C during clear, humid spells, making a 0% implied probability for any range above the current reading statistically anomalous unless the market defines "YES" as a specific, unattainable extreme. Comparable cases from July 2024 and 2025 show the station regularly hitting 35°C or higher, indicating that the current crowd sentiment ignores the region's consistent summer heat patterns where overcast skies often clear by afternoon to release trapped heat.

Traders should monitor the hourly Wunderground updates for the Bao'an station specifically, as a sudden drop in cloud cover or a shift in wind direction could trigger a rapid temperature rise before the 12:00 UTC deadline. No major weather announcements or coaching changes apply here, but the dependency on the final 120-minute data point is critical; if the sky clears within the next hour, the temperature could breach 34°C, rendering the current 0% probability incorrect based on standard seasonal climatology for the Guangdong province.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.