Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen’s late-July heat is usually intense but not extreme by local standards, with average July highs clustering around 31–32°C and typical daytime readings in the low 30s. Long-run weather summaries put the city’s July maximum near 32.3°C, while station-based histories for Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport show a record high of 36.4°C, which was reached in 2022.[1][18]

For a market priced at 0% yes, the key context is that the required outcome is the single hottest reading recorded at the airport station on the day, not the average high. Comparable July 31 data point to a fairly ordinary hot-season setup: one historical daily profile for Shenzhen shows a July 31 average high of 34°C, with the record still well short of the sort of values that would push the market into the upper tail.[14][18]

The main catalysts are the same ones that can lift any southern China temperature print: cloud cover, monsoon rain, and typhoon-related circulation changes. Shenzhen’s July climate is humid and rain-prone, with roughly 17–20 rainy days in the month depending on the dataset, so traders should watch for late-shifting precipitation or tropical weather alerts that can cap the daytime maximum; NOAA’s station page for ZGSZ and the Wunderground history page are the relevant settlement sources for the final reading.[5][15][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I bet on individual matches?

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.