Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 4?

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Market context

Shenzhen's climate in early June sits at the threshold of its summer monsoon season, with daily highs typically ranging between 28°C and 32°C. The city experiences increasing humidity and occasional rainfall as the south-west monsoon strengthens, though sustained heat waves remain uncommon at this time of year compared to July and August. Historical data from Bao'an International Airport shows that temperatures exceeding 35°C in June are rare, occurring in fewer than 5% of years on record.

The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current assessment that extreme heat is unlikely for this specific date. However, traders should note that early June can occasionally see heat spikes if a high-pressure system stalls over southern China before the monsoon fully establishes itself. The China Meteorological Administration typically issues extended forecasts around late May that would signal any anomalous warming patterns. Local weather stations and Wunderground's historical data suggest that a reading above 33°C would represent a notably warm day for the period, whilst anything above 35°C would be exceptional and would require unusual atmospheric conditions—such as a delayed monsoon onset or an intrusive tropical system.

Settlement depends entirely on the highest temperature recorded at Bao'an station on 4 June 2026, with no adjustments for methodology or sensor changes. Traders should verify Wunderground's data feed closer to the resolution date, as occasional station maintenance or data corrections can occur.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.