Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 25?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen's weather on 25 May 2026 will be shaped by the city's transition into early summer, when subtropical high-pressure systems typically dominate southern China. May temperatures at Bao'an International Airport station historically peak in the 32–35°C range during this period, though readings can occasionally exceed 36°C during heat waves driven by westerly wind patterns stalling over the region.

The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either avoiding the market or expect resolution data to remain unavailable. Historical May records from Shenzhen show consistent daily highs above 30°C, making extreme cold outcomes implausible; the real variance lies in whether conditions favour the mid-30s or push toward 36°C+. Comparable May days from 2015–2024 reveal that anomalously cool readings (below 28°C) occur in fewer than 5% of cases, typically only when tropical systems bring cloud cover and rain.

Traders should monitor late-May weather models from the China Meteorological Administration and track any tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea, which could suppress temperatures through increased cloud cover and precipitation. Bao'an station's official records, published via Wunderground's historical database, will be the sole settlement source; any data gaps or station maintenance issues during the resolution window could affect payout timing. Current seasonal forecasts from late April 2026 will provide the most reliable signal for positioning.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.