Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 27?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen's weather on 27 May 2026 will be measured against historical temperature records from Bao'an International Airport, the city's primary meteorological station. Late May falls within Shenzhen's pre-monsoon period, when subtropical high-pressure systems typically drive afternoon temperatures into the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning only temperatures recorded up to that point will count towards resolution.

Shenzhen's May climate shows consistent patterns across recent decades. Data from the China Meteorological Administration indicates that daily highs in late May average around 28–30°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 32–34°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either exceptionally low confidence in specific temperature bands or uncertainty about which range options are available for settlement. Historical volatility in this period remains moderate; significant deviations from the 28–32°C range occur roughly once every five to ten years.

Traders should monitor weather forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models (GFS, ECMWF) as May 2026 approaches. Urban heat island effects around the airport and any unusual atmospheric patterns—such as early monsoon onset or tropical system proximity—could shift outcomes. Real-time temperature data from Wunderground will be the definitive source, though preliminary forecasts typically become reliable five to seven days before the settlement date.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 27? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.