Highest temperature in Singapore on July 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the daily peak temperature at Singapore Changi Airport on 8 July 2026, with the market currently pricing a 31°C hit at zero per cent despite thundery showers forecast for the day[3]. Historical July data shows average highs of 88°F (31.1°C), rarely dipping below 84°F or exceeding 92°F, meaning 31°C sits squarely within the typical range rather than as an outlier[7]. The current zero per cent probability appears misaligned with the long-term average, which consistently lands near this threshold, suggesting the market may be overreacting to short-term cloud cover rather than the seasonal baseline[1].

Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground updates for the exact peak reading, as thundery showers can suppress temperatures slightly but rarely below 30°C in mid-July[3]. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 8 July, so any late afternoon heat spike could still push the record to 31°C or higher[5]. Recent Polymarket activity on similar dates shows 37% implied probability for 31°C on 8 July, indicating broader market sentiment contradicts the current zero per cent pricing[2]. Watch for official National Weather Service METAR reports confirming the peak, as these are the definitive source for resolution[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Singapore on July 8?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.