Highest temperature in Singapore on May 26?

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Market context

Singapore's daily maximum temperature on 26 May 2026 will be recorded at Changi Airport Station, the official meteorological reference point for the island. The settlement window closes at midday on that date, meaning the highest temperature reached during the morning and early afternoon will determine the outcome. Singapore sits 1° north of the equator with consistent equatorial climate patterns; May falls within the southwest monsoon season, characterised by afternoon thunderstorms and high humidity rather than extreme heat peaks.

Historical data from Changi Airport shows May daily maxima typically range between 31°C and 34°C, with readings above 35°C occurring in roughly 5–10% of May days over the past two decades. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in a specific temperature threshold as the upper bound of available options. Without visibility on the exact range brackets offered, this reflects either an unusually high threshold or market uncertainty about which temperature bands are in play. Comparable equatorial stations show similar clustering, with extreme outliers requiring either unusual atmospheric conditions or measurement anomalies.

Traders should monitor the Singapore Meteorological Service's seasonal forecasts released in late April, which typically indicate monsoon intensity and rainfall patterns affecting daytime heating. The El Niño or La Niña phase active in early 2026 will influence regional pressure systems. Wunderground's historical data feed occasionally experiences delays in finalisation; the settlement window's midday cutoff means afternoon convection and any late-day temperature spikes will be captured, but traders should verify data availability well before the resolution deadline.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.