Highest temperature in Taipei on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei’s weather on 1 August is typically hot, humid and prone to short-lived spikes above the monthly average, with late-summer highs commonly clustering in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius and occasional extremes into the upper 30s. Historical August guides for Taipei and Taiwan show typical daily highs around 32–35°C, while a documented Taipei August record has reached 38°C, which is why the market’s implied 0% for the event outcome is best read as a pricing artefact rather than a statement that a high-temperature reading is impossible.[2][9][12][18]

For traders, the key catalysts are the day’s forecast updates, any changes in typhoon tracks or broad rain bands, and the timing of cloud cover or sea-breeze suppression over Songshan Airport, which can materially cap the afternoon maximum. The contract resolves off the highest reading at Taipei Songshan Airport Station on the day, so intraday swings matter more than the morning forecast; the market page also notes that revisions are only considered until the first datapoint for the following date is published.[3] Recent market pricing has leaned towards 36°C as the leading outcome, with 37°C next, which is consistent with the August climatology and the possibility of a brief heat peak even if late showers develop later in the day.[3][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Taipei on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.