Highest temperature in Taipei on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei’s high at Songshan Airport on 24 July is being priced as a very low-end outcome, with the market currently showing **0% YES** even though the listed outcomes still put the modal bucket at **35°C**.[1] That sits against Taipei’s usual July pattern: daytime highs are commonly in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, and July is widely described as the city’s hottest month, with average highs around **34°C** and typical daytime temperatures ranging roughly **32–38°C**.[2][4] In other words, a reading in the low 30s would be ordinary for the season, while a genuinely cooler day would need cloud, rain or a maritime flow to cap the top temperature well below the summer norm.[2][5]

For traders, the key variables are the local synoptic setup and whether showers or thunderstorms develop around the airport during the daytime heating peak. Taipei in July is also a wet month, with one source describing more than **20 rainy days** and around **197 mm** of precipitation, which matters because rainfall and persistent cloud can suppress the daily maximum even when the broader seasonal baseline is hot.[5] The settlement source is Wunderground’s daily history for Taipei Songshan Airport, so intraday spikes, afternoon convection and the exact timestamp of the day’s highest reading will matter more than forecasts framed around city-wide averages.[1] The market’s 0% implied probability is therefore best read as a statement about bucket pricing, not as evidence that an extreme high is impossible, especially with nearly the whole day still to unfold.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Taipei on July 24?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.