Highest temperature in Taipei on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei is in the middle of a genuine heat spell, with the Central Weather Administration issuing an orange heat advisory and reporting daytime temperatures above 36°C for a third straight day on Friday.[1] That matters because this market resolves on the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport on 31 July, so the live set-up is already close to the upper end of what is normal for the month rather than starting from a cool baseline.[7][11]

Historically, July in Taipei is hot enough that mid-30s Celsius are common, with monthly average highs around 33°C and record July readings well above that level.[4][7][11] Recent heat episodes show the city can push further when conditions align: Taipei reached 39.7°C in 2020, its hottest recorded temperature at the time, and this month’s run of 36°C-plus readings is a reminder that an extreme late-July outcome is not out of character during strong heat surges.[10][1] A 0% crowd price on the top outcome therefore looks anchored to the assumption that the day finishes in a lower band, not to any expectation that Taipei cannot briefly spike higher.

For traders, the main catalysts are the afternoon temperature peak and any CWA updates on heat advisories, because Taipei’s daily maximum typically arrives later in the day and can still move materially after the morning session.[1][7] Watch for changes in cloud cover, afternoon showers, or typhoon-related circulation near Taiwan, as those can cap the high even after a hot start; the market’s settlement source is Wunderground’s daily history for Taipei Songshan Airport, so the final printed maximum there is what matters, not forecasts alone.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Taipei on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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When do sports markets resolve?

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.