Highest temperature in Taipei on May 26?

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Market context

Taipei's weather on 26 May 2026 will determine the highest temperature recorded at Songshan Airport Station that day, with settlement based on Wunderground's historical data archive. May sits within Taipei's late spring period, typically characterised by warming trends ahead of the summer monsoon season. The city's subtropical climate produces variable conditions during this transition month, influenced by shifting pressure systems and occasional frontal activity moving across the Taiwan Strait.

Historical May temperatures at Songshan Airport show a median high around 29–31°C, though extremes have reached into the mid-to-high 30s during particularly warm years. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either heavily discounting the likelihood of specific temperature thresholds or awaiting clearer seasonal forecasting data. Comparable May days from recent years provide limited predictive value given year-to-year variability driven by monsoon onset timing and upper-level atmospheric patterns.

Traders should monitor long-range weather models released in April and early May 2026, particularly those tracking potential high-pressure systems or tropical moisture influx. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 26 May, creating a hard deadline for final temperature readings. Any significant weather announcements from Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau regarding seasonal patterns or anomalies in the weeks preceding the date could shift market positioning, though near-term forecasts (5–10 days out) will carry the most weight for late-stage trading activity.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Taipei on May 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.