Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s reading at Haneda is likely to be set by ordinary August heat rather than anything exceptional: climate references put Tokyo’s August average high around 31°C to 34°C, with daily highs commonly in the low 30s and occasional spikes well above that.[2][3][11][12] AccuWeather’s August 2026 outlook still points to highs mostly between 82°F and 90°F, which is broadly consistent with a warm but not extreme day in the city.[1] On that basis, a 0% implied probability for any specific high-temperature band looks like a pricing artefact unless the market is using a very narrow range.

The historical frame suggests traders should expect a wide spread of possible outcomes, because Tokyo’s August extremes can exceed 37°C and Japan’s nationwide August record is far higher still.[2][17] At the same time, the monthly average is anchored much lower, and August is described as the hottest month in Tokyo, with typical highs around 31°C.[3][11][12] That means the most relevant comparison is not the all-time record, but whether the day behaves like a standard humid summer afternoon or a hotter-than-average spell that pushes the Haneda maximum several degrees above the norm.[2][3]

The key catalysts are the short-range weather forecast, any heat warnings, and cloud cover or rain bands that can cap daytime warming; Tokyo’s August temperatures can move quickly with changing conditions.[1][6][15] Traders should watch the nearest forecast updates into the settlement window, plus any official advisories for heat and humidity, because a clear, sunny day materially raises the chance of a higher peak than a cloudy or showery one.[1][15] The market resolves to the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on the day, so the relevant dependency is not the morning reading but the full-day maximum reported by the source.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.