Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's maximum temperature on 13 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with resolution tied to the specific hourly readings rather than summary high-low figures. August in Tokyo typically sees peak temperatures between 32–35°C, though extreme heat events pushing toward 37–38°C occur roughly once per decade during particularly intense summer pressure systems.

Historical records show Tokyo exceeded 37°C on 13 August only twice in the past fifty years: in 2013 (37.3°C) and 1994 (37.5°C). The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect temperatures to fall below the lowest resolution bracket, though this underestimates the baseline likelihood of mid-30s readings typical for mid-August. The Japan Meteorological Agency's seasonal outlooks, published in early summer, will signal whether 2026 is tracking toward above-normal or near-normal August temperatures across the Kanto region.

Traders should monitor the Western Pacific subtropical high-pressure system's positioning in late July and early August, as its strength and proximity to Japan directly determines whether heat domes develop. Typhoon activity in early August could also suppress temperatures through cloud cover and moisture, though such systems typically clear before mid-month. The JMA's ten-day forecasts, issued around 4 August, will provide the most actionable signal for temperature trajectory in the final week before settlement.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

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