Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 16 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station using the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground, with settlement occurring at 12:00 UTC that day. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either incomplete pricing or an expectation that resolution data may not be available in time for settlement.

August temperatures at Tokyo Haneda typically peak between 32–35°C, with historical records showing the station regularly records highs in the mid-30s during mid-August. The absolute maximum temperature ever recorded in Tokyo is 40.9°C (July 2013), though August extremes are generally lower. Comparable August 16 observations from prior years provide a baseline: the station's August averages cluster around 33–34°C, making temperature ranges in the 30–36°C band historically most probable. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders may be waiting for seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder market pending meteorological data availability closer to the settlement date.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature ranges. Any unusual atmospheric patterns—including typhoon activity or heat dome formation across East Asia—could shift outcomes materially. The specific reliance on Haneda's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures means traders must verify data availability on Weather Underground itself, as technical delays or data gaps could affect settlement timing despite the market's 12:00 UTC window.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

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