Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 17 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, the primary resolution source for any discrepancies with summary forecasts. The market currently shows 0% probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting traders are either awaiting seasonal data or treating this as a placeholder ahead of the 2026 summer season.

August temperatures at Tokyo Haneda typically range between 28–35°C, with historical highs frequently exceeding 33°C during mid-August heat waves. The past five years show considerable variation: August 2023 saw peaks near 36°C, whilst cooler years like 2021 recorded maxima around 31–32°C. These precedents indicate the market's current zero probability reflects early-stage pricing rather than genuine uncertainty about whether a temperature will be recorded; traders will likely begin positioning once seasonal forecasts and climate patterns become clearer in mid-2026.

Catalysts shaping outcomes include the Japan Meteorological Agency's seasonal outlook, typically released in late June, and any El Niño or La Niña patterns developing through spring 2026. Urban heat island effects around Haneda have intensified incrementally over the past decade, potentially pushing August highs upward relative to historical averages. Traders should monitor whether 2026 develops into an anomalously hot summer across East Asia, as regional heat domes frequently affect Tokyo's peak temperatures during this period.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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