Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo is entering the first Sunday of August with a very warm daytime ceiling, and the market is tied to the highest temperature recorded at Haneda Airport rather than central Tokyo, so the airport readout is the key figure to watch. Forecasts for Tokyo on 2 August cluster around the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with daily highs projected in the 82° to 90°F range and a separate market snapshot already pricing 34°C as the leading outcome, which fits a broadly hot summer setup rather than an extreme spike.[1][2]

That 0% YES price is best read as the market implying the observed high will stay outside the nominated band, not as a view that Tokyo will be cool. August in Tokyo typically produces average highs around 31°C, and recent late-July data show the wider region has already been capable of reaching the mid-30s, including a 36.4°C year-to-date high in central Tokyo during the current heat spell.[8][11] In other words, the distribution is anchored by persistent summer heat, but the exact settlement outcome still depends on whether Haneda briefly edges up a degree or two above the broader city forecast.

For traders, the main catalysts are the afternoon temperature peak, the timing of any cloud build-up or sea-breeze relief, and whether official or airport-specific observations revise the day’s maximum before the settlement window closes. The market’s own rules note that revisions within the timeframe count until the first datapoint for the following date is published, so a late-day change can still matter if it arrives before that cutoff.[2] Broadcast and forecast updates from the Japan Meteorological Agency, plus any local thunderstorm or shower development, are the practical dependencies that can move the final print away from the initial consensus.[2][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.