Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s temperature on Haneda Airport’s reporting day is trading against a fairly warm summer backdrop, with current forecasts clustering around the high 20s to around 30°C for the city and nearby observations already in the 20s Celsius. AccuWeather’s August outlook shows Tokyo’s daily highs mostly between 82°F and 90°F, while the Japan Meteorological Agency puts the city’s normal early-August maximum at 28.5°C, which makes a sub-25°C outcome look unusual unless cloud, rain or an onshore flow suppresses the daytime peak.[3][11]

The 0% crowd-implied YES probability is best read as a statement about how hard it is to reach the market’s settlement band rather than a literal forecast of impossible heat. For context, Tokyo’s recent forecasts have been more mixed than extreme, with the Met Office and JMA both showing cloudy conditions and intermittent showers, but still allowing daytime highs in the high 20s Celsius.[12][13] That keeps the distribution anchored near seasonally normal values, where the key question is not whether it gets warm, but whether it pushes into the upper bands before early afternoon cut-off dynamics at the airport station.

Traders should watch for any late shift in precipitation timing, cloud cover and wind direction, because those are the main variables that can cap or extend the day’s maximum. The live observations already show humid, fairly warm conditions in Tokyo, with BBC Weather reporting 21°C, 80% humidity and southerly wind, which supports the idea that the atmosphere is warm enough for a normal summer high if cloud breaks open.[6] If the afternoon stays showery, the realised maximum is more likely to sit closer to the lower forecast range; if sunshine holds, the higher forecast bands become much more plausible.[8][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.