Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the daily high temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 10 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. Historical data shows Tokyo’s July highs typically range between 26°C and 35°C, with recent ensemble forecasts pointing to a 30°C maximum for 9 July and a likely 31°C peak for 10 July. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for “26°C or below” aligns with this pattern, as such a low reading is statistically improbable during the hot season, which runs from late June to mid-September and averages daily highs above 26°C[1][5].

Traders should monitor short-range ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency, which are updated daily and may shift implied probabilities for specific temperature brackets. Recent market data indicates 31°C is the frontrunner at 38%, with 30°C next at 34%, suggesting tight competition between these two outcomes[2][10]. Any sudden changes in forecast models, cloud cover, or wind patterns could alter the expected peak, making real-time weather updates critical before the settlement window closes on 12:00 UTC, 10 July 2026[2][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.