Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo will experience its peak summer heat on 16 July 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station determining the outcome of this weather prediction market. The settlement relies on Wunderground data for the daily maximum in degrees Celsius, capturing the intense conditions typical of mid-July in the Kanto region.

Historical July data for Tokyo shows peak temperatures frequently landing between 33°C and 35°C, making the current 0% crowd-implied probability for any specific outcome appear misaligned with seasonal norms. Recent market activity suggests 33°C is the frontrunner at 40%, followed by 34°C at 28%, indicating traders expect temperatures to hover near these thresholds rather than deviate significantly [1]. Comparable cases from previous years confirm that temperatures rarely dip below 32°C during this period, with peak heat occurring between 11 AM and 6 PM [2].

Traders should monitor real-time weather forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency as the settlement window approaches, particularly watching for cloud cover or rain systems that could suppress temperatures below 33°C. The settlement ends at 12:00 UTC on 16 July, meaning the market resolves based on the full day’s record up to that point, with no allowance for unrecorded data. Any sudden shifts in humidity or wind patterns from the Pacific could act as immediate catalysts, altering the likelihood of the 33°C or 34°C outcomes [1].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.