Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s summer heat on 17 July 2026 is being tracked at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, with the market betting on which Celsius range will contain the day’s peak temperature. The settlement relies on Wunderground’s official daily record for that station, and the current crowd-implied probability for any YES outcome sits at 0%, suggesting traders expect the temperature to fall outside the listed ranges or that the market remains unresolved due to insufficient liquidity or ambiguous range definitions.

Historically, mid-July in Tokyo sees peak temperatures typically between 32°C and 36°C at Haneda, based on recent decade averages, with 2023 and 2024 both recording highs near 35°C on similar dates. The 0% probability implies either a mismatch between the offered ranges and expected conditions or a lack of conviction in any single outcome, contrasting with the adjacent market on lowest temperature, where 26°C holds 59% confidence and 27°C holds 28%, indicating clearer consensus on overnight lows than daytime peaks.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s real-time updates as the day progresses, particularly any sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns that could suppress peak temperatures below expected ranges. No major weather announcements have been issued yet for the Kanto region as of early Friday UTC, but the Japan Meteorological Agency’s hourly forecasts for the coming 24 hours will be the primary catalyst for price movement, especially if a heat dome strengthens or breaks before noon.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.