Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s 27 July heat will be measured by the highest temperature recorded at Haneda Airport Station by the end of the settlement window, so the market is really about whether the city gets a normal midsummer afternoon spike or something more muted. Tokyo in July is typically hot enough that visitors are advised to plan outdoor activity early and move indoors between about 11 am and 5 pm, which reflects the season’s tendency to produce strong daytime heat rather than a flat profile.[1]

A 0% implied chance on the top outcome suggests traders are not currently pricing in an exceptional heat event, and that is consistent with the market’s narrow resolution rule: only the day’s *maximum* at one specific station matters, not the broader city feel. For comparable summer weather markets, the key reference is usually the distribution of recent July highs rather than the average temperature, because a brief afternoon surge can move the result even if the morning and evening are comfortable.[1]

The main catalysts to watch are the local forecast updates for Tokyo, any shift towards clearer skies or stronger sunshine, and whether sea-breeze or rain-bearing systems limit the afternoon high. Because the market resolves from Wunderground’s daily history page for RJTT, the relevant dependency is the final recorded maximum there rather than any broader official city reading, so late changes in the forecast matter most if they alter the expected peak around mid-afternoon.[1]

Sources: 1

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 27?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.