Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s July 9, 2026 high temperature hinges on whether the day hits exactly 29°C at Haneda Airport, with current crowd-implied probability at 0% for that outcome. Historical July data shows Haneda routinely exceeds 30°C, often climbing above 35°C in humid, steamer-like conditions, making a precise 29°C reading statistically rare [3]. The Japan Meteorological Agency’s official observation confirms that July highs typically land in the 30–35°C band, with 29°C occurring only during cooler anomalies or cloud cover [7]. Given this pattern, the 0% probability aligns with traders’ view that 29°C is an outlier in midsummer Tokyo.

Traders should monitor real-time forecasts from the Met Office and Wunderground for shifts in cloud cover or precipitation, which could suppress temperatures toward 29°C [2]. A sudden rain event or persistent cloud layer—both common in Tokyo’s wet July, with 169mm average rainfall—might temporarily lower highs [3]. Additionally, watch for updates from the Japan Meteorological Agency on short-term weather models, as their latest forecasts indicate maximums hovering near 30–32°C, leaving little room for a 29°C spike unless conditions change abruptly [7]. No major coaching changes or absences apply here, but atmospheric dependencies remain the sole catalyst.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.