Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo is currently experiencing extreme heat as the capital sizzles under a record-breaking June temperature wave, with temperatures climbing to 36.4°C in recent years, marking the highest June reading in 147 years of records[10]. This persistent thermal intensity frames the current 0% crowd-implied probability for a lower temperature range, suggesting traders view a significant heat spike as the baseline rather than an anomaly. Historical precedents reinforce this outlook, as Japan recently recorded its highest temperature ever at 41.2°C in Tamba city during the hottest June on record, while Tokyo itself logged a record 10 consecutive days above 35°C in a previous extreme summer[1][9].

The primary catalyst for traders to monitor is the official daily high temperature release from Wunderground for Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, which will determine the market resolution at 12:00 UTC on 30 June 2026[1]. Forecast models for Haneda in June 2026 indicate daily highs ranging between 75°F and 83°F (approximately 24°C to 28°C), yet the recent trend of record-breaking heat suggests these averages may be understated[3]. Traders should also watch for any sudden heatstroke warnings issued by national broadcaster NHK, as the country recently issued such alerts across 33 prefectures during its hottest month, indicating a systemic risk of temperatures exceeding typical forecasts[1]. The settlement window closes precisely at 12:00 UTC, leaving no room for post-window temperature fluctuations to alter the outcome[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.