Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 23?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Tokyo's maximum temperature on 23 May 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. Late May in Tokyo typically sits in the warm-to-hot range, with average highs around 25–27°C, though the city experiences considerable day-to-day variation depending on weather systems moving through the Kanto region.

Historical May temperatures at Haneda show the station regularly records highs between 24 and 30°C during this period. Exceptionally warm days—pushing toward 32–35°C—occur roughly once every few years when high-pressure systems dominate or when warm air masses arrive from the south. Conversely, cooler spells with highs near 20°C are not uncommon if frontal systems bring cloud cover and rain. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal liquidity; comparable May days at Haneda provide a reasonable baseline for assessing which ranges merit consideration.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather patterns emerging in April and early May 2026, including the position of the Pacific high-pressure system and any early-season typhoon activity in the region. Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts issued in the week before 23 May will offer the most actionable signal. Haneda's location near Tokyo Bay means sea-surface temperatures and local wind patterns can shift outcomes by several degrees compared to inland stations, making coastal weather reports particularly relevant to resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.