Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 25?

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Market context

On 25 May 2026, Tokyo's highest temperature will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against a set of predefined ranges. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning the full day's temperature record must be finalised through Weather Underground's historical data by that point.

Tokyo's late May climate sits at the threshold between spring and early summer, with average highs around 26–27°C but considerable year-to-year variation. The past decade shows May 25th highs ranging from 19°C to 31°C depending on whether a high-pressure system or frontal system dominates. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific range options available or expect an unusually cool day relative to seasonal norms. Historical data from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicates that temperatures above 30°C occur roughly one year in three on this date, whilst readings below 20°C are comparatively rare but not unprecedented.

The primary catalyst is the position of the Pacific high-pressure system in late May 2026, which typically begins its seasonal northward migration around this time. Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts from mid-May onwards, particularly any alerts regarding early heat waves or unseasonal cool fronts. Haneda's location on Tokyo Bay means sea-breeze effects can moderate afternoon peaks compared to inland stations. The specific range brackets offered in this market will determine whether the crowd's current scepticism reflects genuine uncertainty or simply unfavourable odds on the most likely outcomes.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.