Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Tokyo's maximum temperature on 26 May 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. Late May in Tokyo typically falls within the pre-tsuyu (rainy season) period, with daytime highs averaging 24–27°C, though variability increases as the month progresses toward the onset of the monsoon system.

Historical precedent suggests May 26 temperatures in Tokyo cluster between 22–28°C under normal conditions. Exceptionally warm days—reaching 30°C or above—occur in roughly 5–10% of years during this window, typically driven by early-season heat waves or high-pressure systems moving northward from subtropical regions. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned reflects either extreme scepticism about unseasonably high temperatures or potential confusion around the market's resolution mechanics, given that some temperature range will necessarily occur on the date in question.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts from mid-May onwards, as seasonal pattern shifts become clearer closer to the settlement date. The timing of tsuyu onset—which can vary by 1–2 weeks annually—materially affects whether high-pressure dominance or cloud cover and precipitation prevail. Recent years have shown increasing frequency of early heat events in the Kanto region, though 26 May remains climatologically early for extreme heat. Wind patterns and any tropical systems tracking toward Japan in the preceding weeks will be critical indicators of whether temperatures deviate significantly from the 24–27°C seasonal norm.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.