Highest temperature in Toronto on August 7?

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Market context

Toronto Pearson’s temperature on 7 August is usually set by a warm, humid late-summer air mass rather than an extreme heat event, and the market’s 0% implied probability is best read against that normal range. Toronto’s August average high is around 25–27°C, with typical daily highs in the mid-to-upper 20s and occasional excursions into the low 30s when a ridge builds over southern Ontario.[1][11][18] The latest Toronto forecasts available around the event period pointed to a mostly sunny, humid day with a forecast high near 77–80°F, alongside forecasts for showers or thunderstorms in parts of the GTA.[2][3][15] That combination makes a low-to-mid 20s Celsius outcome far more common than a genuinely hot peak, especially if cloud cover or convection caps the afternoon maximum.[1][3]

For traders, the key drivers are the timing of showers, thunderstorm cover, and how much sun reaches Pearson during the warmest part of the day, because the market settles on the highest reading in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table rather than a headline high.[2] Toronto forecasts around the date also flagged humid conditions and a chance of rain, which matters because a brief shower or overcast spell can hold down the day’s peak even when the broader forecast looks warm.[3][15] On the evidence available, this is a classic late-summer weather market: the fair value is shaped less by a single “heatwave” narrative than by whether the afternoon stays bright and dry long enough for the station to touch the upper 20s Celsius.[1][2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Toronto on August 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

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