Highest temperature in Toronto on May 24?

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Market context

Toronto's weather on 24 May 2026 will be recorded at Pearson International Airport, with the market asking traders to predict which temperature band will contain that day's high. The settlement relies on historical data from Weather Underground, capturing the single highest reading across all daylight and evening hours at the airport's official station in Mississauga.

May in Toronto typically sits in the shoulder season between spring and early summer, with historical highs on this date ranging between 22°C and 28°C over the past three decades. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the market mechanics or waiting for seasonal forecasts to crystallise. Comparable May 24ths show considerable variability: the city has recorded highs as low as 16°C during cooler years and reached 27°C during warmer springs, reflecting the volatility of late-spring weather patterns in the Great Lakes region.

Traders should monitor Environment Canada's extended forecast as May 2026 approaches, particularly tracking whether high-pressure systems or frontal systems are positioned to influence southern Ontario during that specific week. The airport's elevation and proximity to Lake Ontario create microclimatic effects that can suppress temperatures relative to downtown Toronto, so the Pearson station reading may run 1–2°C cooler than broader city averages. Any significant atmospheric patterns emerging in early May—such as Arctic air masses or warm continental flows from the south—will provide concrete data points for narrowing the likely range before the settlement window closes.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Toronto on May 24? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.