Highest temperature in Wellington on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington International Airport’s early-August high is usually modest, with long-run August averages clustered around 12–14°C and the city’s monthly mean generally near 12°C, so the market’s current 0% implied chance for an extreme outcome is consistent with the climate baseline rather than any structural impossibility.[1][2][8] Historical August records show that Wellington can occasionally run warmer than its typical seasonal range, but the common result remains a cool, changeable day rather than a pronounced warm spike.[7][13]

For traders, the key read-through is the weather pattern into the morning and early afternoon UTC window that covers the settlement period: a settled northerly flow or brief break in cloud cover would be the main route to a higher maximum, while onshore wind, cloud and rain would anchor the peak closer to the usual low teens.[1][5][6] NIWA’s August 2025 climate summary described Wellington as wetter and less sunny than the other main centres, which underlines how dependent the airport’s daytime high is on short-notice synoptic changes rather than month-long averages.[5] The practical catalyst is the latest forecast and any same-day weather changes at NZWN, because the market resolves to the highest temperature actually recorded at the airport station on 3 August, not to a citywide or daily average.[9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wellington on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Which sports markets are available?

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How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.