Highest temperature in Wellington on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s temperature on 5 August will be set by how much the city can warm between the morning chill and the afternoon peak at Wellington Intl Airport. Early indications point to a cool August day rather than a mild outlier: current forecast pages for Wellington show temperatures around 10–13°C, with cloud, rain or showers, and brisk winds limiting daytime warmth.[2][6][7][17]

That context matters because Wellington’s August climate is usually steady rather than extreme. Long-run guides cluster the city’s average August high around 11–12°C, with several rainy days and frequent breeze, so a reading much above the low teens would be uncommon and would usually require clearer skies and lighter winds than forecasts typically suggest.[3][4][5][11][15] The 0% crowd-implied probability therefore fits the idea that this market is being priced as an unlikely upside temperature surprise, not a normal August outcome.[3][5][15]

For traders, the key catalysts are the same-day forecast updates and any changes in wind, cloud cover, or precipitation timing at Wellington Intl Airport. MetService has already described light snow in Wellington on 5 August, which would normally weigh against a late-day temperature spike, while the airport observation itself and any short-term forecast revisions closer to settlement will matter most because the market resolves to the day’s highest reading at that station.[12][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wellington on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.