Highest temperature in Wellington on August 9?

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Market context

Wellington Airport’s temperature on 9 August will be settled from the **highest reading in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table**, not the headline day high, so the key question is whether the station prints a warm enough spike before the settlement cut-off. August is normally a cool month in Wellington: typical highs are around **12°C to 13°C**, with most daily highs clustering in the low teens rather than anything near the upper teens.[1][10][19]

That makes a 0% YES price look anchored to the climate baseline rather than to an expectation of an outright record. Comparable August data show Wellington’s daily maxima usually sit well below 15°C, while the all-time August record cited in one historical guide is **61°F (about 16°C)**, indicating that the settlement bands above the low teens are possible but uncommon.[1][11][14] Recent Wunderground history also shows the first week of August 2026 staying mostly in the low-to-mid teens in Fahrenheit terms, with only one notably warmer day so far, which reinforces how narrow the temperature distribution has been this month.[7]

For traders, the main catalysts are the local weather pattern over the next few hours and whether a brief midday clearing or downsloping wind allows a higher observation at Wellington International Airport before the window closes. Wellington’s August forecast from AccuWeather points to highs in roughly the **53° to 61°F** range, which is broadly consistent with the historical norm and suggests the market outcome will hinge on the day’s exact hourly observations rather than on any strong regime shift.[16] The most important dependency is the final Wunderground table entry for the station on 9 August, since that is the source named for resolution.[2][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wellington on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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